Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
Stock Market Correction May Start Soon
In spite of today's intraday reversal of some decent losses, the weight of the technical evidence continues to point towards a short to intermediate term correction which will set up a final 5th wave move to a more significant high above the 2011 highs. Buyers have continually bought even the smallest dip. This is not bullish. The market is probably exhausting short to intermediate term buying power at the top of the wave which will likely result in a deeper and longer correction.
The market has been maintaining its highs on the strength of earnings releases and the grand news that Greece will not entirely default on its debt in the near term. That's all priced into the market now. The occasional "better than expected but not really great" economic release has also created buying excuses for anxious bulls.
If indeed a correction is due or in progress, the wave to be corrected is a wave (iii) of C off the December 19 bottom:
A 38.2% correction will take the market to the vicinity of the 50 EMA and the uptrend from the August and October 2011 lows. That will correct intermediate term overbought conditions and create a nice buying opportunity for a good rally above resistance to new highs.
Go here to read the full BullBear Market Report:
http://www.thebullbear.com/group/bullbeartradingservice/forum/topics/02-27-11-bullbear-market-report
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Keeping You on the Right Side of the Market
Friday, February 24, 2012
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Monday, February 13, 2012
Friday, February 10, 2012
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Why S&P 500 Can Rally Back to the 2007 High
As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon. While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.
My "BullBear" methodology requires me to always evaluate the potential of both sides of a given market. After establishing a solid list of potential scenarios, I examine the technicals of the market. Frequently the underlying technical setup will align itself best with a particular scenario and that will then become my favored market view. If the market technicals do not support any particular scenario, that's generally a signal that it's time to stand aside or hold an existing position. By constantly revisiting the technical condition of the market, I can re-evaluate my market view and improve my chances of keeping on the right side of the market.
I'm seeing the emergence of a set of technical conditions that could have more in common with the 2003, 2009 and 2010 bottoms than with a topping scenario. While at a shorter to intermediate term degree there are many technicals which support a correction of the run off the 2011 low, I am seeing significant indications in the longer term technicals that support an eventual move to the 2007 high.
When a cluster of significant Fibonacci relationships converge on a single point, it bears investigation:
The 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the moves from March 2009 to April 2010, July 2010 to February 2011 and May 2011 to August 2011 as well as the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the April 2010 to July 2010 decline all converge very near the 2007 highs between 1552 and 1558. Frequently when a number of important Fib relationships convene in one place the market will be magnetically drawn to it....
CONTINUE READING FULL BLOG POST:
Monday, February 6, 2012
Friday, February 3, 2012
Stock Market Will Go Higher Than You Think
HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II
The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day. Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish. Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down. Here's how I see the market currently:
HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II
http://bit.ly/AcF8oj
Need some help staying on the right side of the markets? Join the BullBear Traders room at TheBullBear.com. You'll get this kind of timely, incisive, unbiased stock and financial market trading, timing, forecasting and investment technical analysis and commentary daily. It's free to join, no credit card is required and if you like my work you just make a donation at the end of each month.
Keeping You on the Right Side of the Market